Daily Vault Briefing ·Jun 25, 2026
Drawdowns dominate the board today, with SPR crude at a 44-year low and LME aluminum at its weakest since 2022, while COMEX copper quietly runs the other way.
8 signals ranked by distance from normal
SPR crude sits at 331.2 MM bbl, the lowest since June 1983 and the 2nd-lowest reading in a 44-year record. The week's 2.7% draw looks modest, but the 30-day move of 11.5% is what put the level here; this is the rare case where the position is extreme and still moving, not extreme and frozen.
The crude complex rhymes down the line. Cushing crude is off 26.6% over 30 days to a 19.0 MM bbl level last seen in October 2014, and US commercial crude has eased 7.4% to the 75th percentile of its record. The hub is draining far faster than the broad commercial pool, a divergence in velocity rather than direction.
Base metals split. LME aluminum sits at the 1st percentile of an 18-year record, the lowest since September 2022, yet the daily move is a near-flat 0.5%, an extreme level with calm speed. LME copper is down 12.8% over 30 days but still holds the 77th percentile, while COMEX copper runs opposite at a 5-month high, up 3.0% on the month.
Tokyo retail gold reads 98th percentile of a 37-year record at the level, even as it has shed 10.3% over 30 days, the same level-versus-velocity tension. COMEX registered gold sits at a 5-month low on a 4.6% monthly slide. The data shows a board defined by tight inventories that are, in most cases, still tightening.
SPR crude fell to 331.2 MM bbl, the lowest reading since June 1983 and the 2nd-lowest in a 44-year record. Down 2.7% on the week and 11.5% over 30 days, the reserve is both extreme and still falling.
Tokyo retail gold sits at ¥23,094/g, in the 98th percentile of its 37-year history. The level stays near the top even after a 2.1% daily drop and a 10.3% slide over 30 days.
Cushing crude dropped to 19.0 MM bbl, the lowest since October 2014. The 5.4% weekly draw and 26.6% monthly slide make this the fastest-moving piece of the oil board.
COMEX registered gold, the metal actually deliverable against futures, sits at 15.01M oz, a 5-month low. It edged up 0.1% on the day but is down 4.6% over 30 days.
LME aluminum stocks fell to 310,225 mt, the lowest since September 2022 and the 1st percentile of an 18-year record. The daily move was a near-flat 0.5%, so the extreme level sits on a calm day.
LME copper stocks of 341,925 mt are down 12.8% over 30 days but still hold the 77th percentile of an 18-year record. The level remains elevated even as it drains.
COMEX copper stocks rose to 655,834 short tons, a 5-month high, up 0.3% on the day and 3.0% over 30 days. This is the one inventory on the board building rather than drawing.
US commercial crude sits at 412.1 MM bbl, the 75th percentile of a 44-year record. It is off 1.5% on the week and 7.4% over 30 days, a slower draw than the Cushing hub.
Sources and method
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.