Vance's LME Monitor
LME Warehouse Ledger
295.6K mt on-warrant
Total stock: 295.6K mt
LME Aluminum on-warrant stock is 295.6K mt as of July 6, 2026, down 11.3% in the past 30 days.
On-warrant metal sits in LME-listed warehouses with warrants issued, ready to deliver against LME contracts.
Measured in metric tons (mt). At the 1st percentile of LME Aluminum's 19-year recorded history, today's on-warrant stock is lower than most of what's on record, a relatively thin warehouse.
Over the past ~18 weeks it has moved in line with its usual pace.
24h Change
-1.1%
7d Change
-2.7%
30d Change
-11.3%
Cash Price
$3,105
USD per tonne, official LME settlement
3-Month Price
$3,113
USD per tonne, delivery in three months
Cash vs 3-Month
Contango
3-month $8 over cash · 3 straight sessions
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Rate of build · past 12 months
395.7K → 295.6K mt
Warehouse metal is metal that was produced or imported but not used. Over the past year LME Aluminum was drawn down by -100,175 mt, which tends to point to tightening supply, not a price call.
Among the fastest 12-month draws since 2008 (bottom 35%, not a record).
Eased off the recent peak of 558.1K mt.
All-Time High
5.49M mt
January 16, 2014 · current 94.6% below
All-Time Low
271.5K mt
August 23, 2022 · current 8.9% above
Where Today Sits
1st percentile
of the 19-year daily record · lowest since Sep 2022
All six LME warehouses
Total Stock History
LME Aluminum total stock
April 8, 2026 to July 6, 2026
Source: London Metal Exchange official daily warehouse reports via Westmetall. Units: metric tonnes of total stock. Daily history back to 2008; long windows are downsampled to 500 plotted points.
How to Read This Data
On-Warrant Stock
Metal directly claimable against active futures contracts. This is the most liquid form of LME inventory and the focus of most squeeze analysis.
Cash vs 3-Month
The gap between metal for delivery now (cash) and in three months. Cash above 3-month (backwardation) signals near-term tightness. 3-month above cash (contango) is the normal carry state.
Depletion Signals
Rapidly falling inventory alongside rising prices signals physical scarcity — a potential squeeze. Watch on-warrant levels closely near delivery dates.
Common questions
- What is on-warrant stock on the LME?
- On-warrant stock is metal in LME-approved warehouses that is backed by a live warrant and available to settle contracts. It is the most liquid, immediately deliverable form of LME inventory and the figure most watched for squeeze risk.
- What is a cancelled warrant?
- A cancelled warrant is metal that an owner has earmarked for physical withdrawal from the warehouse. It is still on site but on its way out, so a rising share of cancelled warrants points to metal leaving the deliverable pool.
- What does falling LME inventory signal?
- Steadily falling on-warrant stock, especially alongside rising cancelled warrants and firmer prices, points to tightening physical availability. It tends to coincide with delivery pressure rather than predicting a price move on its own.
- What do contango and backwardation mean on the LME?
- Contango means metal for delivery in three months costs more than metal for delivery today, the normal state, because storing and financing metal has a cost. Backwardation is the reverse: cash metal costs more than the 3-month contract, which usually signals near-term tightness in physical supply.