Metals & Energy Research
Every read starts from a number in our own data — COMEX, the LME, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — and works out what it means.
Is US Diesel at an All-Time Low? Fact Checked: 246 Weeks Were Lower, the East Coast Is at a 37-Year Low, and the Record Is the Pump Price (September 2026)
Bloomberg's August 26 headline said US diesel supplies hit a record low. The body sized it as a record for this time of year. Ranked against the full EIA record, one of four yardsticks is at a record, and it is not the one the headline named.
Read the researchCOMEX Wasn't Buying Silver. It Was Making Change: we checked all 48 appearances of firm 991, 48 exact conversions, 0 ounces kept (January to August 2026)
Two March Substack essays said CME's own house account had become the "buyer of last resort," absorbing 82 percent of a day's silver deliveries; one said it did so to keep the system from seizing. The same evening's PDF shows 570,000 ounces of micro contracts leaving one page earlier, issued by the same account. We checked every appearance of firm 991 in the 154 daily delivery reports we hold, silver and gold, January 15 to August 28: 48 for 48, the ounces tie exactly, six ran in reverse, and the running balance ends at zero.
Read the researchWhy Treasury Doubled Its Long-Term Bond Buybacks: $520 Billion Offered, $42 Billion Taken, and an Exit Queue at 18 Times the Door (August 2026)
On August 18 Treasury paid 52 cents on the dollar for a bond it issued in 2021. The next morning it doubled the long-bond buyback window, the first change to those caps in the program's history. The wire stories covered the announcement; our ledger of every operation since 2000 shows what forced it: dealers offered $520 billion into the window this year, Treasury accepted $42 billion, and the line at the exit has been building for 2 years.
Read the researchLME Aluminum Stocks at a 19 Year Low, Fact Checked: 138 Sessions Without a Build, and This Time the Metal Is Not Hiding Off Warrant (August 2026)
Reuters called it the lowest this century and pointed at the Gulf. Our own capture shows the bleed started seven weeks before the missiles, has not printed a single daily build since February 2, and, unlike July's lead episode, is not rotating into off warrant sheds. Meanwhile the curve stopped worrying, which is the part that deserves an explanation.
Read the researchLME Lead's Record Stock Surge, Fact Checked: 167,200 Tonnes In, and the Quiet Rotation Back Off Warrant (July to August 2026)
Bloomberg said Trafigura. Reuters said rent deals. The LME's daily off warrant reports, which nobody went back to read, show where the 167,200 tonnes came from and where the drained warrants are going now.
Read the researchCOMEX Palladium: 17,000 Ounces Left the Deliverable Pool in One June Day
On June 11, 2026, palladium's registered COMEX stocks fell 17,283 ounces in a single session, the biggest one-day reclassification of the year. It was a category shuffle, not metal leaving the vault. Underneath it sits a bigger story: a US tariff wall against Russian palladium, and a price that will not move despite it.
Read the research40 Years of American Silver Eagle Demand
Every American Silver Eagle the U.S. Mint has sold since 1986, by the month: the panics, the record years, and the January spike nobody talks about.
Read the researchSimon won the famous bet. He loses 67 of our 110 reruns.
The 1980 five-metal wager, recomputed for every rolling ten-year window since 1900 from USGS constant-dollar prices. Ehrlich wins 61% of the century; the actual bet landed inside Simon's best streak. Full 110-window table included.
Read the researchSilver finally beat 1980. Then it crashed like 1980, twice.
The 1980 record stood 45 years, 8 months and 21 days. Since it fell on October 9, 2025, silver hit $121.6, crashed 47% in eight days, and crashed again in June. In 1980 dollars, the real record near $213 was never touched.
Read the researchHow to hide and bury gold, silver, and copper without losing it
Ten thousand dollars is a casino die of gold, a coffee mug of silver, or 1,594 pounds of copper. The density math, burial container engineering, the legal line on public land, phone OPSEC, and camera placement of deep storage.
Read the researchCushing crude fell to 19.6 million barrels, then rebuilt. The SPR did not.
The WTI delivery hub sank toward the low end of its 22-year range in July 2026. Graded eight weeks on: Cushing recovered to 22.4M bbl while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve kept draining.
Read the researchSPR Sale and Purchase Solicitations: how the DOE buys and sells reserve crude
The notices the U.S. Department of Energy uses to sell or buy Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude, a reserve now at its lowest level since 1983. How the mechanism actually works.
Read the researchWhat should silver actually cost? The gold-to-silver ratio from first principles
A live first-principles valuation: divide the current gold price by silver's structural ratios — mine supply, crustal abundance — to build a physical-fair range, then read the gap to today's price as gold's monetary premium. Recalculated from spot.
Read the researchHow the 2026 oil release actually worked: one emergency, five playbooks
Thirty-four countries released oil into the same emergency. Almost none did it the same way. The U.S. lent its oil and gets more back; everyone else sold, loosened a mandate, or pumped more.
Read the researchJapan just posted the largest crude oil drawdown in its history
Japan moves about 90% of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait spent 2026 effectively closed, and the reserve is doing the bridging.
Read the researchCopper's refining benchmark fell to zero for 2026, a first
Most of the world's silver comes out of the same mines as copper, lead, zinc, and gold. The 2026 copper treatment charge settled at zero, a first on record.
Read the researchThe SPR is draining, and it did not stop at the ceasefire
The war was the reason everyone pointed to. The drawdown is the part that has not stopped.
Read the researchWhy the eligible pile drained fastest in COMEX gold's 2026 slide
The gold in COMEX-approved warehouses shrank by 8.37 million ounces in five months. The bars not yet committed to contracts left fastest.
Read the researchThe Strait of Hormuz is reopening. The oil won't flow back overnight.
A peace deal ends the 107-day blockade. Clearing the mines, satisfying insurers, and refilling the supply gap will take months, from a 40-year-low reserve.
Read the researchNo reports match that.
Try a different market, or clear the filters to see all reports.