The Global Liquidity Question and What COMEX Physical Metal Shows Right Now

Readers keep asking for a global liquidity index, a single line combining US, BOJ, PBOC, and ECB M2 into one macro read. The Desk understands the appeal. But we report against a closed set of verified figures, and this week that set is physical metal and physical oil, not aggregated central-bank money supply. So we tell you what the data actually shows.

Why a Liquidity Index Is Not This Week's Data

The premise behind a global liquidity index is sound: fiat expansion across the four largest monetary blocs eventually shows up in hard-asset pricing. The problem is grounding. We do not publish numbers we cannot cite to a primary feed with an as-of date, and no M2 series sits in front of us today. What sits in front of us is the physical inventory that liquidity ultimately competes for. So we track the metal and the barrels instead of narrating a chart we cannot source.

Gold and Silver: The Deliverable Fraction

The gold available to hand to buyers barely moved this week, down 41,582 oz to 14.78M oz (-0.3%), while total COMEX vault gold slipped -0.2% to 27.07M oz. Only 55% of the vault is free to deliver. That swing is worth roughly $173M at spot of $4,165 an oz. Silver went the other way: deliverable stock rose 3,334,822 oz to 96.34M oz (+3.6%), with total vaulted silver up 1.3% to 330.32M oz. Only 29% of the silver vault is free to deliver, a $202M swing at $61 an oz.

The Oil Side of the Same Question

Liquidity chases energy too, and here the physical picture is specific. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 316.5 M bbl as of Jul 10, 2026, near its lowest in 44 years. Cushing, Oklahoma, the physical delivery point for the US benchmark, held 20.0 M bbl as of Jul 10, 2026, toward the low end of the last 22 years. Commercial crude, the everyday working supply, sat at 409.7 M bbl as of Jul 10, 2026, around the middle of its 44-year range. So the emergency and benchmark stashes read thin while the working barrel count reads ordinary.

The Barbell: One Data Point, One Reality

Connect the granular to the macro and skip the middle. The eligible-versus-registered split on COMEX, 55% deliverable gold and 29% deliverable silver as of this week, is the physical-market version of the liquidity question readers are actually asking. When more fiat exists than hard asset available to deliver against it, the deliverable fraction is the constraint that matters. The Desk cannot chart four M2 series today, but we can report that a minority of vaulted silver is free to move, and that the SPR is near a 44-year low. Those are the facts on the table.

What to Watch This Week

Track the deliverable fraction, not just the headline vault total. Silver's registered stock rose 3.6% while total barely moved, which means the free-to-deliver share is where the action is. On energy, watch whether Cushing holds near its 22-year low band and whether the SPR moves off its 44-year floor. When a sourced M2 feed is in front of the Desk, we will chart the liquidity index properly. Until then we report the metal and the barrels.