COMEX Silver: Only 29% of the Vault Is Free to Deliver

Readers digging into the registered tier of COMEX silver want the number that actually matters: how much metal is legally free to hand to a buyer standing for delivery, not the total sitting in the vault. This week that registered figure was little changed, up 401,548 oz to 93.01M oz (+0.4%). The rest of the vault is a bigger pile, but most of it isn't going anywhere without a warrant change.

Registered vs. Eligible: The Only Split That Counts

COMEX splits warehouse metal into two buckets. Registered silver carries a warrant and is available for delivery against futures contracts. Eligible silver meets exchange standards but sits in storage with no warrant attached, held by owners who have not offered it up. Only the registered tier is deliverable metal. The Desk tracks that number because it is the one that constrains physical settlement, not the headline vault total the mainstream tends to quote.

As of this week, total silver in COMEX vaults moved barely, up 1.1% to 326.02M oz. Registered stood at 93.01M oz. That leaves 29% of the vault free to deliver, with the remaining 71% sitting in the eligible bucket. The week-over-week registered move was worth roughly $24M at a spot price of $60 an ounce.

Silver's Deliverable Ratio Against Gold's

For context on how tight that 29% reads, gold's own registered ratio sits higher. This week COMEX registered gold was little changed, up 5,016 oz to 14.82M oz (0.0%), against a total vault of 27.12M oz (-1.6%). That puts 55% of the gold vault free to deliver, nearly double silver's share. The gold swing was worth about $21M at a spot price of $4,114 an ounce.

The Desk does not read a low registered ratio as a crisis. It reads as owners choosing storage over warrants. Eligible metal can be converted to registered when the price incentive is there, and the flow between the two tiers is the mechanism worth watching week to week. A flat registered number alongside a rising total, which is roughly what we observe in silver this week, means new metal arrived but stayed in the eligible bucket.

Why the Physical Tier Matters More Than the Paper Print

Paper silver trades in volumes that dwarf what is physically parked in Comex-approved vaults. The registered tier is the anchor on the other end of that rope. At 93.01M oz this week, it is the pool that would actually service delivery notices. The Desk observes that a +0.4% weekly change in registered is noise, not signal. What moves the needle is a sustained drain in registered while eligible holds, or a wholesale conversion of eligible into registered ahead of an active delivery month.

The Barbell here is simple. One granular data point, the 29% deliverable ratio, connects to one macro reality: the physical float backing the world's most heavily traded silver contract is a fraction of the metal nominally in the building. That gap is structural, not new, and it is the number to keep in front of you.

What We're Watching This Week

Watch the registered number in isolation and the eligible-to-registered conversion flow. A rising total vault with a flat registered figure, this week's pattern, tells you metal is arriving but staying uncommitted. A falling registered figure against a steady total would be the more meaningful move. The Desk will flag it if the deliverable ratio breaks materially below the current 29%.