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Research · Commodities

Simon Won the Famous Bet. He Loses 67 of Our 110 Reruns.

· By the ByShovel Research Desk

Every number in this piece is recomputed from the U.S. Geological Survey's public price series; the full 110-window table is at the bottom. How we research.

In 1980, economist Julian Simon bet ecologist Paul Ehrlich $1,000 that five metals would be cheaper, in inflation-adjusted terms, ten years later. Simon won, and the check Ehrlich mailed in October 1990, for $576.07, became the most famous piece of paper in resource economics. We reran the identical bet for every ten-year window the data supports, all 110 of them since 1900. Ehrlich wins 67. The most interesting thing about the most famous bet in economics turns out to be the date of the handshake.

The bet, precisely

The terms were clean. On September 29, 1980, Ehrlich's side chose five metals, chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten, and notionally bought $200 of each. If the inflation-adjusted price of the $1,000 basket was higher on September 29, 1990, Simon would pay the increase; if lower, Ehrlich would pay the decrease. Ehrlich was betting that population growth makes materials scarce and dear; Simon, that human ingenuity makes them cheap. By September 1990 all five had fallen in real terms, some by half, and Ehrlich mailed a check for $576.07 with no note.

The rerun

We replayed the same rules through the U.S. Geological Survey's historical price series (Data Series 140), which publishes each metal's annual U.S. unit value in constant 1998 dollars back to 1900. For every start year, $200 goes into each metal at that year's real price; ten years later the basket is marked and the winner declared. The five series overlap fully from 1900 through 2019, which allows 110 windows, 1900-1910 through 2009-2019.

First, the honesty check: our method scores the actual bet window, 1980 to 1990, as a Simon win with all five metals down and a $375 payout on annual-average prices. The real settlement was $576.07 because the bet used specific market quotes on specific September dates rather than annual averages. Same winner, same five-metal sweep, different magnitude. With that calibration stated, here is the century.

The same bet, started in every year since 1900 (net payout to Ehrlich, constant dollars)
Ehrlich wins (basket rose) Simon wins (basket fell)
-$500 $0 +$500 +$1,000 +$1,500 +$2,000 1901 to 1911: Ehrlich wins, net $+252 1902 to 1912: Ehrlich wins, net $+206 1903 to 1913: Ehrlich wins, net $+347 1904 to 1914: Ehrlich wins, net $+29 1905 to 1915: Ehrlich wins, net $+673 1906 to 1916: Ehrlich wins, net $+658 1907 to 1917: Ehrlich wins, net $+113 1908 to 1918: Ehrlich wins, net $+540 1920 to 1930: Ehrlich wins, net $+110 1921 to 1931: Ehrlich wins, net $+276 1922 to 1932: Ehrlich wins, net $+237 1923 to 1933: Ehrlich wins, net $+259 1924 to 1934: Ehrlich wins, net $+514 1925 to 1935: Ehrlich wins, net $+418 1926 to 1936: Ehrlich wins, net $+405 1927 to 1937: Ehrlich wins, net $+561 1928 to 1938: Ehrlich wins, net $+419 1929 to 1939: Ehrlich wins, net $+368 1930 to 1940: Ehrlich wins, net $+517 1931 to 1941: Ehrlich wins, net $+565 1932 to 1942: Ehrlich wins, net $+516 1933 to 1943: Ehrlich wins, net $+222 1934 to 1944: Ehrlich wins, net $+17 1935 to 1945: Ehrlich wins, net $+7 1938 to 1948: Ehrlich wins, net $+35 1941 to 1951: Ehrlich wins, net $+196 1942 to 1952: Ehrlich wins, net $+282 1943 to 1953: Ehrlich wins, net $+332 1944 to 1954: Ehrlich wins, net $+318 1945 to 1955: Ehrlich wins, net $+463 1946 to 1956: Ehrlich wins, net $+642 1947 to 1957: Ehrlich wins, net $+205 1948 to 1958: Ehrlich wins, net $+57 1949 to 1959: Ehrlich wins, net $+147 1950 to 1960: Ehrlich wins, net $+3 1954 to 1964: Ehrlich wins, net $+18 1955 to 1965: Ehrlich wins, net $+15 1957 to 1967: Ehrlich wins, net $+80 1958 to 1968: Ehrlich wins, net $+273 1959 to 1969: Ehrlich wins, net $+179 1960 to 1970: Ehrlich wins, net $+305 1961 to 1971: Ehrlich wins, net $+444 1962 to 1972: Ehrlich wins, net $+204 1963 to 1973: Ehrlich wins, net $+331 1964 to 1974: Ehrlich wins, net $+689 1965 to 1975: Ehrlich wins, net $+633 1966 to 1976: Ehrlich wins, net $+627 1967 to 1977: Ehrlich wins, net $+820 1968 to 1978: Ehrlich wins, net $+602 1969 to 1979: Ehrlich wins, net $+689 1970 to 1980: Ehrlich wins, net $+607 1971 to 1981: Ehrlich wins, net $+294 1972 to 1982: Ehrlich wins, net $+90 1985 to 1995: Ehrlich wins, net $+34 1986 to 1996: Ehrlich wins, net $+48 1994 to 2004: Ehrlich wins, net $+267 1995 to 2005: Ehrlich wins, net $+227 1996 to 2006: Ehrlich wins, net $+955 1997 to 2007: Ehrlich wins, net $+1,551 1998 to 2008: Ehrlich wins, net $+1,988 1999 to 2009: Ehrlich wins, net $+1,237 2000 to 2010: Ehrlich wins, net $+1,615 2001 to 2011: Ehrlich wins, net $+2,314 2002 to 2012: Ehrlich wins, net $+2,335 2003 to 2013: Ehrlich wins, net $+1,601 2004 to 2014: Ehrlich wins, net $+796 2005 to 2015: Ehrlich wins, net $+78 1900 to 1910: Simon wins, net $-65 1909 to 1919: Simon wins, net $-38 1910 to 1920: Simon wins, net $-438 1911 to 1921: Simon wins, net $-489 1912 to 1922: Simon wins, net $-444 1913 to 1923: Simon wins, net $-414 1914 to 1924: Simon wins, net $-367 1915 to 1925: Simon wins, net $-506 1916 to 1926: Simon wins, net $-539 1917 to 1927: Simon wins, net $-514 1918 to 1928: Simon wins, net $-519 1919 to 1929: Simon wins, net $-254 1936 to 1946: Simon wins, net $-129 1937 to 1947: Simon wins, net $-135 1939 to 1949: Simon wins, net $-34 1940 to 1950: Simon wins, net $-46 1951 to 1961: Simon wins, net $-165 1952 to 1962: Simon wins, net $-68 1953 to 1963: Simon wins, net $-127 1956 to 1966: Simon wins, net $-73 1973 to 1983: Simon wins, net $-77 1974 to 1984: Simon wins, net $-333 1975 to 1985: Simon wins, net $-401 1976 to 1986: Simon wins, net $-522 1977 to 1987: Simon wins, net $-507 1978 to 1988: Simon wins, net $-89 1979 to 1989: Simon wins, net $-170 1980 to 1990: Simon wins, net $-375 1981 to 1991: Simon wins, net $-333 1982 to 1992: Simon wins, net $-244 1983 to 1993: Simon wins, net $-368 1984 to 1994: Simon wins, net $-248 1987 to 1997: Simon wins, net $-48 1988 to 1998: Simon wins, net $-446 1989 to 1999: Simon wins, net $-557 1990 to 2000: Simon wins, net $-320 1991 to 2001: Simon wins, net $-306 1992 to 2002: Simon wins, net $-332 1993 to 2003: Simon wins, net $-12 2006 to 2016: Simon wins, net $-241 2007 to 2017: Simon wins, net $-252 2008 to 2018: Simon wins, net $-246 2009 to 2019: Simon wins, net $-58 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 start year of the ten-year window

What 110 reruns say

Ehrlich wins 67 windows of 110, or 61 percent. The average rerun pays him $191 on the $1,000 basket and the median pays $90. In 21 windows all five metals rose in real terms and in 20 all five fell: these metals move as a herd, which is why the bet so often ends in a sweep in one direction or the other, exactly as the real one did. Julian Simon's proposition, that raw materials reliably get cheaper in real terms over any decade, is not what this series shows. What it shows is regimes.

Windows starting Ehrlich wins The era
1900-19198 of 20WWI spike, then the postwar bust
1920-193917 of 20Depression-era lows make cheap starting lines
1940-195915 of 20War and postwar industrial demand
1960-197913 of 20The long boom into the 1970s commodity shock
1980-19998 of 20Simon's era: disinflation and the great glut
2000-20096 of 10China's supercycle, then its hangover

The streaks are the story. Ehrlich's side wins 16 consecutive windows starting 1920 through 1935, another 16 starting 1957 through 1972, and 12 straight starting 1994 through 2005. Simon's side owns two long runs: 11 windows starting 1909 through 1919, and 12 starting 1973 through 1984. The single best window for Ehrlich is 2002 to 2012, a $2,335 payout on the $1,000 basket as China repriced everything; the best for Simon is 1989 to 1999, minus $557. The last window the data supports, 2009 to 2019, goes to Simon.

The handshake was the whole bet

Look at where September 1980 sits: inside Simon's best streak in the century, windows starting 1973 through 1984, right as the greatest commodity boom since Korea was cresting. Ehrlich agreed to buy the top. Had the same handshake happened in any year from 1994 through 2005, Simon writes the check; from 2002, he writes one for more than twice the stake. Researchers who have audited the original bet reached the same verdict from the other direction: had it settled in 1989 instead of 1990, chromium and nickel would have finished higher, and the sweep disappears.

None of this rescues Ehrlich's forecast of famine-driven scarcity, and none of it cancels Simon's larger point that innovation keeps finding substitutes. What the 110 reruns actually establish is narrower and more useful: a ten-year bet on real commodity prices is a bet on which decade you happen to get, because the series is regime-driven, not trend-driven. Anyone quoting the 1980 bet as proof in either direction is quoting a coin that landed once.

We watch the same forces the bet was secretly about, every day and in public: the copper page tracks the metal that carried the 2002 window (and whose refining benchmark just settled at zero for the first time), LME warehouse stocks show the physical glut or squeeze in real time, and silver's own 46-year version of this whiplash is documented in our round-trip piece. The next regime will print there first.

The full table: all 110 windows, 1900-1910 through 2009-2019
Window Winner Net to Ehrlich Metals up
1900–1910Simon-$652 of 5
1901–1911Ehrlich+$2522 of 5
1902–1912Ehrlich+$2063 of 5
1903–1913Ehrlich+$3473 of 5
1904–1914Ehrlich+$292 of 5
1905–1915Ehrlich+$6732 of 5
1906–1916Ehrlich+$6582 of 5
1907–1917Ehrlich+$1134 of 5
1908–1918Ehrlich+$5404 of 5
1909–1919Simon-$382 of 5
1910–1920Simon-$4380 of 5
1911–1921Simon-$4890 of 5
1912–1922Simon-$4440 of 5
1913–1923Simon-$4140 of 5
1914–1924Simon-$3670 of 5
1915–1925Simon-$5060 of 5
1916–1926Simon-$5390 of 5
1917–1927Simon-$5140 of 5
1918–1928Simon-$5190 of 5
1919–1929Simon-$2541 of 5
1920–1930Ehrlich+$1103 of 5
1921–1931Ehrlich+$2762 of 5
1922–1932Ehrlich+$2373 of 5
1923–1933Ehrlich+$2594 of 5
1924–1934Ehrlich+$5144 of 5
1925–1935Ehrlich+$4184 of 5
1926–1936Ehrlich+$4053 of 5
1927–1937Ehrlich+$5615 of 5
1928–1938Ehrlich+$4194 of 5
1929–1939Ehrlich+$3684 of 5
1930–1940Ehrlich+$5175 of 5
1931–1941Ehrlich+$5654 of 5
1932–1942Ehrlich+$5163 of 5
1933–1943Ehrlich+$2223 of 5
1934–1944Ehrlich+$173 of 5
1935–1945Ehrlich+$73 of 5
1936–1946Simon-$1291 of 5
1937–1947Simon-$1351 of 5
1938–1948Ehrlich+$353 of 5
1939–1949Simon-$343 of 5
1940–1950Simon-$463 of 5
1941–1951Ehrlich+$1964 of 5
1942–1952Ehrlich+$2825 of 5
1943–1953Ehrlich+$3325 of 5
1944–1954Ehrlich+$3184 of 5
1945–1955Ehrlich+$4634 of 5
1946–1956Ehrlich+$6425 of 5
1947–1957Ehrlich+$2053 of 5
1948–1958Ehrlich+$572 of 5
1949–1959Ehrlich+$1473 of 5
1950–1960Ehrlich+$32 of 5
1951–1961Simon-$1652 of 5
1952–1962Simon-$683 of 5
1953–1963Simon-$1272 of 5
1954–1964Ehrlich+$183 of 5
1955–1965Ehrlich+$153 of 5
1956–1966Simon-$733 of 5
1957–1967Ehrlich+$803 of 5
1958–1968Ehrlich+$2735 of 5
1959–1969Ehrlich+$1794 of 5
1960–1970Ehrlich+$3055 of 5
1961–1971Ehrlich+$4445 of 5
1962–1972Ehrlich+$2045 of 5
1963–1973Ehrlich+$3315 of 5
1964–1974Ehrlich+$6895 of 5
1965–1975Ehrlich+$6335 of 5
1966–1976Ehrlich+$6275 of 5
1967–1977Ehrlich+$8204 of 5
1968–1978Ehrlich+$6024 of 5
1969–1979Ehrlich+$6894 of 5
1970–1980Ehrlich+$6074 of 5
1971–1981Ehrlich+$2943 of 5
1972–1982Ehrlich+$903 of 5
1973–1983Simon-$772 of 5
1974–1984Simon-$3331 of 5
1975–1985Simon-$4010 of 5
1976–1986Simon-$5220 of 5
1977–1987Simon-$5070 of 5
1978–1988Simon-$893 of 5
1979–1989Simon-$1702 of 5
1980–1990Simon-$3750 of 5
1981–1991Simon-$3330 of 5
1982–1992Simon-$2441 of 5
1983–1993Simon-$3680 of 5
1984–1994Simon-$2481 of 5
1985–1995Ehrlich+$343 of 5
1986–1996Ehrlich+$483 of 5
1987–1997Simon-$483 of 5
1988–1998Simon-$4460 of 5
1989–1999Simon-$5570 of 5
1990–2000Simon-$3200 of 5
1991–2001Simon-$3060 of 5
1992–2002Simon-$3320 of 5
1993–2003Simon-$123 of 5
1994–2004Ehrlich+$2673 of 5
1995–2005Ehrlich+$2272 of 5
1996–2006Ehrlich+$9555 of 5
1997–2007Ehrlich+$1,5515 of 5
1998–2008Ehrlich+$1,9885 of 5
1999–2009Ehrlich+$1,2375 of 5
2000–2010Ehrlich+$1,6155 of 5
2001–2011Ehrlich+$2,3145 of 5
2002–2012Ehrlich+$2,3355 of 5
2003–2013Ehrlich+$1,6015 of 5
2004–2014Ehrlich+$7964 of 5
2005–2015Ehrlich+$784 of 5
2006–2016Simon-$2412 of 5
2007–2017Simon-$2521 of 5
2008–2018Simon-$2461 of 5
2009–2019Simon-$581 of 5

Sources & method

Method: for each start year Y from 1900 to 2009, $200 per metal at that year's USGS annual U.S. unit value in constant 1998 dollars (Data Series 140, latest per-commodity workbooks: chromium 2022, copper 2020, nickel 2019, tin 2021, tungsten 2019); the basket is marked at Y+10 and the net change is the payout, Ehrlich positive. Annual averages, not intra-year quotes, so our 1980 window pays $375 against the historical settlement of $576.07; winner and five-metal sweep match. Independent academic reruns using the same USGS series report Ehrlich winning about six of ten decades, consistent with our 67 of 110.

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Cite this page

The Vault Report. "The Ehrlich-Simon Bet, Rerun for Every Decade Since 1900." https://thevaultreport.com/research/ehrlich-simon-bet-rerun-every-decade (Accessed July 14, 2026).