Aug 2, 2026
Record watch: Cushing crude is the lowest since Aug 2014.
LME lead stocks sit at the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, 441,275 mt, yet the daily tape reads down 1.0%. The level is at its historical ceiling; the speed points the other way, up 49.1% over 30 days. Position and rate-of-change disagree, and that gap is the signal.
The oil complex is the mirror image. Cushing crude at 18.6 MM bbl is the lowest since Aug 2014, and SPR crude at 307.6 MM bbl is the lowest since Mar 1983. Both sit in the 10th and 1st percentiles of their records, with SPR still bleeding 7.1% over 30 days.
Gold's warehouse picture rhymes across three cards: registered stocks at 14.66M oz and total stocks at 27.04M oz both mark 7-month lows, and coverage has thinned to 38.1%, its lowest since Jan 2026. Total gold barely moved on the day, down 0.0%, while coverage keeps sliding, down 5.0% over 30 days. Copper runs opposite, up 7.4% over 30 days to a 7-month high.
The read: metal is draining out of gold vaults and the oil reserves while lead and copper stocks build. Levels at record extremes with calm daily prints are the standing pattern worth tracking, not the one-day ticks.
Cushing crude fell to 18.6 MM bbl, the lowest since Aug 2014, sitting in the 10th percentile of a 22-year record. Down 4.0% on the week and 1.9% over 30 days.
LME lead stocks hit 441,275 mt, the top of a 19-year record. The daily move was down 1.0%, but the 30-day build is a steep 49.1%.
COMEX registered gold, the metal actually available to settle contracts, slipped to 14.66M oz, a 7-month low. Down 0.6% on the day and 1.1% over 30 days.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 307.6 MM bbl, the lowest since Mar 1983 and the 1st percentile of a 44-year record. It is still draining, down 7.1% over 30 days.
COMEX total gold stocks held at 27.04M oz, a 7-month low, with the daily move flat at down 0.0%. The 30-day slide is 1.9%.
COMEX copper stocks edged up to 716,175 short tons, a 7-month high. Up 0.3% on the day and 7.4% over 30 days, running against the metal draining from gold vaults.
COMEX gold coverage, the share of stocks backing open positions, thinned to 38.1%, the lowest since Jan 2026. Down 0.6% on the day and 5.0% over 30 days.
Tokyo retail gold via Tanaka sits at 23,395 yen/g, the 98th percentile of a 38-year record. Down 1.5% on the day but up 0.8% over 30 days.
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.