Aug 4, 2026
The physical board splits clean today: base metals piling up at the top of their ranges while COMEX gold vaults and both U.S. crude stockpiles grind toward multi-decade lows.
LME lead sits at the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, 438,450 mt, up 49.6% over 30 days. The daily move is a flat -0.6%, so the level is pinned at an all-time high while the day-to-day velocity has gone quiet. That gap between an extreme position and a calm tape is the signal.
Lead and COMEX copper rhyme: copper stocks hit a 7-month high at 717,314 short tons, up 7.3% on the month and still climbing 0.2% on the day. Base metals are building inventory at the top of their ranges.
The gold side runs the other way. COMEX total gold sits at a 7-month low, registered gold at a 7-month low, and coverage down to 37.7%, its lowest since Jan 2026. When registered stock thins and coverage drops, each open contract stands against less deliverable metal; that is the standing mechanism, not a forecast.
On energy, Cushing crude at 18.6 MM bbl is the lowest since Aug 2014 and SPR crude at 307.6 MM bbl is the lowest since Mar 1983, 1st percentile of a 44-year record. Two U.S. crude reserves, both grinding down, while Tokyo retail gold holds the 98th percentile of its 38-year history.
Cushing crude sits at 18.6 MM bbl, the lowest since Aug 2014 and the 10th percentile of a 22-year record. Down 4.0% on the week, down 1.9% over 30 days.
LME lead stocks are pinned at 438,450 mt, the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, after a 49.6% build over 30 days. The daily move is a flat -0.6%, so the level is extreme while the tape has gone quiet.
COMEX total gold stocks are at 27.03M oz, a 7-month low, down 1.6% over the month and flat on the day.
SPR crude sits at 307.6 MM bbl, the lowest since Mar 1983 and the 1st percentile of a 44-year record. Down 1.2% on the week, down 7.1% over 30 days.
COMEX copper stocks reached 717,314 short tons, a 7-month high, up 7.3% over 30 days and still up 0.2% on the day.
Tokyo retail gold prints ¥22,782/g, the 98th percentile of a 38-year record, up 0.7% on the day but down 4.3% over the month.
COMEX registered gold, the metal actually pledged for delivery, is at 14.51M oz, a 7-month low. Down 1.0% on the day, down 2.1% over 30 days.
COMEX gold coverage dropped to 37.7%, the lowest since Jan 2026. As coverage falls, each open contract stands against less registered metal.
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.