Aug 8, 2026
The copper board splits clean: paper positioning at a 20-year extreme and COMEX warehouse stocks at a 7-month high, while gold metal quietly drains off COMEX shelves.
Managed money holds 75,758 net copper contracts as of Aug 4, the highest since Feb 2021 and the 95th percentile of a 20-year record, up 16.5% on the week and 26.9% over 30 days. That is a fast, one-directional paper build.
The physical side of copper is moving the same way but slower: COMEX stocks sit at 722,839 short tons, a 7-month high, up 7.2% over 30 days but only 0.3% on the day. LME lead runs the same pattern, pinned at the 100th percentile of a 19-year record and up 45.7% in 30 days, yet down 0.9% on the day. Both metals show extreme levels with the daily velocity already flattening off.
Gold pulls the other way. COMEX total gold hit a 7-month low at 26.71M oz, down 0.8% on the day and 1.5% over 30 days, while Tokyo retail gold sits at the 99th percentile of a 38-year record; the vault stock thins as the retail price holds near its ceiling.
Below the metals, SPR crude reads 304.8 MM bbl, the lowest since Feb 1983 and the 1st percentile of a 44-year series, down 6.4% over 30 days. The data shows extremes stacked on both the paper and physical sides, with the sharpest rate-of-change now in the copper positioning rather than the warehouses.
Speculative funds hold 75,758 net long copper contracts, the highest since Feb 2021 and the 95th percentile of a 20-year record. The position jumped 16.5% in a week and 26.9% over 30 days, a fast one-way build.
US gasoline stocks sit at 209.7 MM bbl, the lowest since Nov 2025, down 0.8% on the week and 2.0% over 30 days. Still mid-range at the 34th percentile of a 37-year series.
LME lead stocks stand at 424,575 mt, the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, up 45.7% over 30 days. The day itself was calm at down 0.9%, so an extreme level with a cooling daily move.
COMEX total gold fell to 26.71M oz, a 7-month low, down 0.8% on the day and 1.5% over 30 days. Metal is drifting off the shelves.
SPR crude reads 304.8 MM bbl, the lowest since Feb 1983 and the 1st percentile of a 44-year record. It fell 6.4% over 30 days, a thin reserve leaves less buffer against supply disruption.
COMEX copper stocks reached 722,839 short tons, a 7-month high, up 7.2% over 30 days but only 0.3% on the day. Levels stretched, daily pace slow.
COMEX registered platinum sits at 193K oz, a 7-month low near the 2nd percentile, down 2.6% over 30 days and flat on the day. Registered metal is the portion actually pledged for delivery.
Tokyo retail gold is priced at ¥23,947/g, the 99th percentile of a 38-year record, down 0.5% on the day and up 0.9% over 30 days. Near its ceiling with little daily movement.
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.