Aug 15, 2026
Managed money keeps piling into copper and gold longs even as COMEX and LME warehouse stocks split three ways, some at record highs, some at 7-month lows.
Managed-money net copper sits at 79,027 contracts as of Aug 11, the highest since Feb 2021 and the 96th percentile of a 20-year record. Up 4.3% on the week and 34.4% over 30 days, the paper long is building at speed.
The physical copper side tells a different story from the crowded long. COMEX copper stocks hit a 7-month high at 735,470 tons, up 7.8% over 30 days, while LME lead stocks also sit pinned at the 100th percentile of a 19-year record despite bleeding 9.6% over the same window. One inventory grinds up, the other drains from an extreme.
Gold splits the same way. Managed-money net gold is up 18.5% over 30 days to 137,662 contracts, yet COMEX total gold stocks sit at a 7-month low and 4th percentile, and COMEX registered platinum sits at a 7-mo low, 5th percentile. Vault levels are near the floor while positioning climbs; that gap between where the metal is and where the paper is leaning is the read.
The two deepest extremes on the board barely moved today: SPR crude at its lowest since Jan 1983 slid 2.0% on the week, and Tokyo retail gold at the 99th percentile of a 38-year record eased 1.9% on the day. Extreme levels, quiet velocity, the data shows position and speed disagreeing across most of the board.
Speculative funds hold 79,027 net long copper contracts, the most since Feb 2021 and the 96th percentile of a 20-year record. The position is up 4.3% on the week and 34.4% over 30 days.
Managed-money net gold longs reached 137,662 contracts, the highest since Sep 2025. Up 5.3% on the week and 18.5% over 30 days, sitting at the 67th percentile.
COMEX copper warehouse stocks reached 735,470 short tons, a 7-month high. Barely moved on the day at +0.2%, but up 7.8% over 30 days.
COMEX registered platinum, the metal actually available to deliver, sits at 193K oz, a 7-month low and the 5th percentile of its short history. Flat on the day, down 2.6% over 30 days.
LME lead stocks sit at 412,675 mt, the 100th percentile of a 19-year record. The level is extreme even as the pile drains 9.6% over 30 days and 0.4% on the day.
COMEX total gold stocks stand at 26.64M oz, a 7-month low and 4th percentile of the recent range. Little changed on the day at +0.1%, down 1.8% over 30 days.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 298.7M bbl, the lowest since Jan 1983 and the 1st percentile of a 44-year record. Down 2.0% on the week and 6.5% over 30 days.
Tokyo retail gold sits at ¥24,658/g, the 99th percentile of a 38-year record. Down 1.9% on the day but still up 5.1% over 30 days.
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.