Daily Vault Briefing ·Aug 20, 2026
The board splits clean today: paper positioning and physical warehouse stocks in copper are both stretched to multi-year highs, while COMEX registered gold and platinum sit pinned near 7-month lows.
8 signals · 3 series crossed a threshold today
LME lead stocks lead the day, sitting at the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, up 2.3% on the day even as they run down 7.3% over 30 days. That is the tension worth naming: the level is as full as the series has ever been while the month-long drift points lower.
Copper rhymes on both the paper and physical side. Managed-money net longs hit 79,027 contracts, the highest since Feb 2021 and up 34.4% over 30 days, while COMEX copper stocks sit at a 7-month high, 741,253 short tons and still climbing. Positioning and warehouse metal pulling the same direction is the cleaner read here.
The precious-metals shelf diverges from that fullness. COMEX registered gold sits at a 7-month low of 14.51M oz and registered platinum at a 7-month low of 193K oz, both parked in the bottom tenth of their short run, while managed-money gold longs climbed to 137,662 contracts and Tokyo retail gold hit the 99th percentile of a 38-year record at ¥25,427/g.
SPR crude rounds out the board at 293.4 MM bbl, the lowest since Dec 1982, a 44-year floor down 7.3% over 30 days. Read together: copper full and crowded, precious-metal deliverable stocks thin and retail demand priced near records.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 293.4 MM bbl, the lowest level since Dec 1982. It fell 1.8% on the week and 7.3% over 30 days, a 44-year floor.
Speculative funds are net long 79,027 copper contracts, the most since Feb 2021 and the 96th percentile of a 20-year record. That position grew 34.4% over 30 days.
Speculative funds are net long 137,662 gold contracts, the highest since Sep 2025, up 18.5% over 30 days. That sits at the 67th percentile of a 20-year history.
LME lead warehouse stocks sit at 418,575 mt, the fullest in 19 years of record. Note the split: up 2.3% on the day but down 7.3% over the past 30 days.
COMEX copper stocks reached 741,253 short tons, a 7-month high, up 6.1% over 30 days. History here is only a few months deep, so read it as a short-run peak.
Tokyo retail gold at Tanaka is ¥25,427/g, the 99th percentile of a 38-year record and up 9.4% over 30 days. Japanese retail is buying near the top of its history.
COMEX registered gold, the deliverable pile, sits at 14.51M oz, a 7-month low in the bottom tenth of its short run. It slipped 1.8% over 30 days.
COMEX registered platinum holds 193K oz, a 7-month low, down 2.7% over 30 days and little changed on the day. Deliverable metal is running thin against its short record.
Sources and method
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.