Jul 29, 2026
The physical board splits clean today: energy reserves grinding to multi-decade lows while base-metal warehouses swell to record highs, with COMEX gold sitting quietly near a 7-month floor.
LME lead stocks tell the loudest story. At 447,750 mt they sit at the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, up 50.5% over 30 days, yet the day itself was dead flat at -0.0%. The level is as extreme as it gets; the velocity has already stalled.
That base-metal glut rhymes across venues: COMEX copper stocks hit a 7-month high at 709,101 short tons, up 7.0% on the month. Two warehouse series parked at their record ceilings at the same time is the pattern the Desk tracks.
The energy side pulls the other way. Cushing crude at 18.6 MM bbl is the lowest since Aug 2014, sitting in the 10th percentile of a 22-year record, and SPR crude at 307.6 MM bbl is the lowest since Mar 1983, dead-bottom at the 1st percentile after a 7.1% monthly drain. Metal piling up, oil draining down.
COMEX gold offers the day's calm-level tension: total stocks at 27.03M oz and registered at 14.76M oz both mark 7-month lows in the 3rd percentile, but neither moved on the day. Extreme position, no speed. Central-bank ledgers frame the extremes, with China at an 11-year high and Germany at a 26-year low.
Cushing crude fell to 18.6 MM bbl, the lowest since Aug 2014 and the 10th percentile of a 22-year record. Down 4.0% on the week and 1.9% over 30 days.
LME lead stocks hit 447,750 mt, the top of a 19-year record, up 50.5% over 30 days. The day itself was flat, so the surge has stalled at its ceiling.
COMEX total gold stocks sit at 27.03M oz, a 7-month low in the 3rd percentile. Flat on the day, down 2.4% over 30 days.
COMEX registered gold, the portion actually deliverable, is at 14.76M oz, a 7-month low. Little changed on the day and down just 0.2% over the month.
SPR crude fell to 307.6 MM bbl, the lowest since Mar 1983 and dead-bottom at the 1st percentile of a 44-year record. Down 1.2% on the week and 7.1% over 30 days.
COMEX copper stocks reached 709,101 short tons, a 7-month high at the 100th percentile. Up 0.4% on the day and 7.0% over the month.
China gold reserves stand at 2,321.6 tonnes, the highest in the 11-year record, up 0.3% on the month.
Germany gold reserves sit at 3,349.5 tonnes, the lowest in the 26-year record, essentially unchanged on the month.
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.