Daily Vault Briefing ·Aug 17, 2026
Managed money is stacking into copper and gold at multi-year extremes while the physical warehouse picture pulls in two directions: copper piling up on COMEX, gold and platinum draining toward 7-month lows.
8 signals · 2 series crossed a threshold today
Managed-money net copper hit 79,027 contracts, the highest since Feb 2021 and the 96th percentile of a 20-year record. That paper positioning is climbing fast, up 34.4% over 30 days, at the same time COMEX copper stocks pushed to a 7-month high of 735,470 short tons, up 7.8% on the month.
The two copper series rhyme: speculative length and physical metal are both building. Gold splits the difference. Managed-money net gold ran to 137,662 contracts, its highest since Sep 2025, up 18.5% over 30 days, while COMEX total gold stocks sit at 26.64M oz, a 7-mo low in the 4th percentile. Paper positioning and warehouse metal moving opposite directions is the tension worth watching.
On the physical side, the metal is draining where positioning is thin. COMEX registered platinum sits at a 7-mo low of 193K oz, and LME lead, though flat on the day at 412,675 mt, is down 9.6% over 30 days despite reading the 100th percentile of its 19-year record. That is the level-versus-velocity gap in plain view: a record-high standing inventory bleeding lower week over week.
SPR crude reads 298.7M bbl, the lowest since Jan 1983 and dead last in a 44-year series. Tokyo retail gold at Tanaka printed ¥24,843/g, the 99th percentile of 38 years. The data shows extremes at both ends of the board, with the sharpest daily moves confined to positioning, not the metal itself.
Speculative funds hold 79,027 net long copper contracts, the most since Feb 2021 and the 96th percentile of a 20-year record. That position grew 4.3% on the week and 34.4% over 30 days.
Managed-money net gold sits at 137,662 contracts, the highest since Sep 2025, up 5.3% on the week and 18.5% over 30 days. That places it in the 67th percentile of a 20-year record, elevated but well short of extreme.
COMEX copper stocks reached a 7-month high of 735,470 short tons, up 7.8% over 30 days. The daily move was a quiet 0.2%, so the buildup is gradual rather than a one-day jump.
Platinum available for delivery on COMEX sits at a 7-month low of 193K oz, the 5th percentile of its short run. It was flat on the day but down 2.6% over 30 days.
LME lead stocks stand at 412,675 mt, still the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, yet down 9.6% over the past 30 days. A record-high level draining steadily is the standing signal, even with the daily move a mild 0.4%.
COMEX total gold stocks sit at 26.64M oz, a 7-month low in the 4th percentile of that run. Up 0.1% on the day but down 1.8% over 30 days.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 298.7M bbl, the lowest since Jan 1983 and the 1st percentile of a 44-year record. It fell 2.0% on the week and 6.5% over 30 days.
Tokyo retail gold at Tanaka printed ¥24,843/g, the 99th percentile of a 38-year record. Up 0.8% on the day and 7.5% over 30 days.
Sources and method
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.