Daily Vault Briefing ·Aug 18, 2026
Speculators piled into copper and gold paper this week while the physical board split hard, COMEX copper stacked to a 7-month high even as LME tin drained 30% in a month.
8 signals · 3 series crossed a threshold today
Managed money pushed net copper longs to 79,027 contracts, the highest since Feb 2021 and the 96th percentile of a 20-year record. That positioning runs against the warehouse: COMEX copper stocks sit at a 7-month high of 737,353 tons, up 6.7% over 30 days.
The base-metal warehouses are pulling in opposite directions. LME tin drained to 5,320 mt, down 30.0% over 30 days and its lowest since Dec 2025, while LME lead holds at the 100th percentile of its 19-year record despite a 9.1% monthly draw. One reserve is emptying fast; the other sits at a record top and only softening slowly.
Gold tells a level-versus-speed story. Managed-money net gold rose 5.3% on the week to 137,662 contracts, its highest since Sep 2025, and Tokyo retail gold sits at the 99th percentile of a 38-year record, yet its daily move was a calm 1.3%. Extreme level, quiet tape.
The standout on the energy side stays SPR crude at 298.7 MM bbl, the 1st percentile of a 44-year record and lowest since Jan 1983, still bleeding 2.0% on the week. That is a reserve at a four-decade floor with the drawdown still running.
Managed-money net copper (COT): 79,027 contracts as of Aug 11. Highest since Feb 2021. Up 4.3% on the week, up 34.4% over 30 days.
LME tin stocks: 5,320 mt as of Aug 17. Lowest since Dec 2025. Down 3.0% on the day, down 30.0% over 30 days.
Managed-money net gold (COT): 137,662 contracts as of Aug 11. Highest since Sep 2025. Up 5.3% on the week, up 18.5% over 30 days.
COMEX copper stocks: 737,353 short tons as of Aug 14. 7-mo high. Up 0.3% on the day, up 6.7% over 30 days.
Tokyo retail gold (Tanaka): ¥25,155/g as of Aug 18. 99th percentile of 38-yr record. Up 1.3% on the day, up 8.8% over 30 days.
SPR crude: 298.7 MM bbl as of Aug 7. Lowest since Jan 1983. Down 2.0% on the week, down 6.5% over 30 days.
LME lead stocks: 410,975 mt as of Aug 17. 100th percentile of 19-yr record. Down 0.4% on the day, down 9.1% over 30 days.
COMEX registered platinum: 193K oz as of Aug 14. 7-mo low. Little changed on the day, down 2.6% over 30 days.
Sources and method
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.