Daily Vault Briefing ·Aug 21, 2026
Managed money is piling into both copper and gold longs while the physical board splits: copper stocks stacking at a 7-month high, gold stocks bleeding to a 7-month low, and SPR crude at a 44-year floor.
8 signals · 3 series crossed a threshold today
Managed-money net copper hit 79,027 contracts, the highest since Feb 2021 and the 96th percentile of a 20-year record, up 34.4% over 30 days. The positioning surge sits alongside COMEX copper stocks at 741,792 short tons, a 7-month high and the 100th percentile of what history the series carries.
Gold rhymes with copper on the paper side and diverges on the physical side. Managed-money net gold ran up to 137,662 contracts, up 18.5% over 30 days, yet COMEX total gold stocks slipped to 26.68M oz, a 7-month low in the 6th percentile of that short record; speculative bids climbing while warehouse metal drifts the other way.
Watch the level-versus-speed gap in the base metals. LME lead sits at the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, an extreme standing level, but the tape is calm: down just 0.4% on the day, down 7.3% over 30 days. An extreme position with a quiet daily move is the setup worth tracking, not the headline number alone.
SPR crude prints 293.4 MM bbl, the lowest since Dec 1982, the 1st percentile of a 44-year series and down 7.3% on the month. A reserve that thin is a standing structural fact regardless of how the paper barrel trades on any given day.
SPR crude fell to 293.4 MM bbl, the lowest since Dec 1982. Down 1.8% on the week and 7.3% over 30 days, it sits in the 1st percentile of a 44-year record.
Managed-money net copper longs reached 79,027 contracts, the highest since Feb 2021. The position is up 34.4% over 30 days and ranks in the 96th percentile of a 20-year record.
Managed-money net gold longs climbed to 137,662 contracts, the highest since Sep 2025, up 18.5% over 30 days. That lands in the 67th percentile of the 20-year record.
COMEX total gold stocks slipped to 26.68M oz, a 7-month low, effectively flat on the day but down 1.4% over 30 days. That sits in the 6th percentile of the short record on hand.
COMEX copper stocks rose to 741,792 short tons, a 7-month high and the top of the record the series carries. Up 0.1% on the day and 5.8% over 30 days.
Tokyo retail gold at Tanaka printed ¥25,571/g, the 99th percentile of a 38-year record. Up 0.6% on the day and 7.4% over 30 days.
LME lead stocks stand at 417,100 mt, the 100th percentile of a 19-year record. Despite that extreme level, the tape is quiet: down 0.4% on the day and 7.3% over 30 days.
COMEX registered platinum sits at 193K oz, a 7-month low, unchanged on the day and down 2.7% over 30 days. That ranks in the 9th percentile of the short record available.
Sources and method
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.