Daily Vault Briefing ·Aug 31, 2026
The board splits clean today: LME base-metal warehouses are draining toward record floors while COMEX copper stacks to an 8-month high, and Tokyo retail gold prints near a 38-year peak even as it drops 2.5% on the day.
8 signals · 2 series crossed a threshold today
LME aluminum sits at 246,725 mt, the lowest in the 19-year record, yet the daily move is flat at 0.0%. That is the tension worth naming: the level is pinned at the 0th percentile while the speed of the drain has gone quiet, the 7.9% bleed all landed over the prior 30 days.
Two LME series rhyme. Lead is off 9.2% over 30 days and aluminum off 7.9%, both draining hard, yet lead still ranks in the 99th percentile of its 19-year record. Same direction of travel, opposite ends of the record: one at the floor, one near the ceiling.
COMEX copper diverges from the LME entirely, up 6.1% over 30 days to an 8-month high while the base metals across the pond empty out. On the precious side, COMEX platinum coverage has fallen 19.1% over 30 days to an 8-month low of 5.9%, with registered platinum at 191K oz sitting in the 2nd percentile of its short run.
Tokyo retail gold reads ¥25,417/g, the 99th percentile of a 38-year record and up 8.6% over 30 days, but down 2.5% on the day. A near-record level paired with the sharpest single-day drop on the board is the gap between position and velocity the Desk tracks. The data shows metal leaving Western warehouses on the base side while paper-thin platinum coverage and a near-peak gold print hold the other end.
LME aluminum stocks are at 246,725 mt, the lowest in the 19-year record, sitting at the 0th percentile. The daily move is flat, but stocks are down 7.9% over the past 30 days.
US gasoline stocks fell to 206.8 M bbl, the lowest since Nov 2025, down 1.2% on the week and 2.1% over 30 days. That still leaves them mid-range at the 26th percentile of the 37-year record.
COMEX copper stocks rose to 753,640 short tons, an 8-month high, up 0.4% on the day and 6.1% over 30 days. Note this run is only a few months deep, so read it as a short-run peak.
Tokyo retail gold from Tanaka printed ¥25,417/g, the 99th percentile of its 38-year record and up 8.6% over 30 days. It fell 2.5% on the day, the sharpest single-day move on the board.
COMEX registered platinum sits at 191K oz, an 8-month low in the 2nd percentile of a short history. It was little changed on the day but is down 2.5% over 30 days.
LME lead stocks are at 406,250 mt, still the 99th percentile of the 19-year record, but down 0.6% on the day and 9.2% over 30 days. The level sits near the ceiling even as the drain accelerates.
SPR crude fell to 289.7 M bbl, the lowest since Nov 1982 and the 1st percentile of a 44-year record. It is down 1.3% on the week and 7.0% over 30 days.
COMEX platinum coverage dropped to 5.9%, an 8-month low in the 2nd percentile of a short history. It was flat on the day but down 19.1% over 30 days, meaning far fewer registered ounces backing each open contract.
Sources and method
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.