Jul 31, 2026
The base metals board is splitting hard, LME lead sitting at the top of its 19-year record while LME aluminum sits at the very bottom of the same window.
LME lead stocks hit the 100th percentile of a 19-year record at 445,850 mt, up 49.9% over 30 days. Yet the daily move was a flat -0.3%: the level is at its ceiling while the day itself sat still, so the build that got it there happened over weeks, not overnight.
That extreme rhymes and clashes with LME aluminum, which sits at the 0th percentile, the lowest in the same 19-year record, down 12.3% over 30 days. Two LME base metals, one at the top of its history and one at the floor, is the divergence worth staring at.
The COMEX gold complex is quietly drifting the same direction across the board. Total stocks at a 7-month low (27.04M oz), registered at a 7-month low (14.75M oz), and coverage at 38.3%, also a 7-month low and down 8.9% on the month, all while the daily moves read little changed. The levels are near the bottom of their short run; the speed is calm.
On the energy side, both crude series read thin: Cushing at 18.6M bbl, lowest since Aug 2014, and SPR at 307.6M bbl, lowest since Mar 1983 and down 7.1% over 30 days. Where a reserve draws down, the buffer against future disruption gets thinner; the data shows two of them near multi-decade floors.
Cushing crude sits at 18.6M bbl, the lowest since Aug 2014, down 4.0% on the week and 1.9% over 30 days. That puts the delivery hub's stocks in the 10th percentile of a 22-year record.
LME lead stocks are at 445,850 mt, the 100th percentile of a 19-year record after a 49.9% build over 30 days. The daily move was a flat -0.3%, so the extreme is the position, not the day.
COMEX copper stocks reached 713,949 short tons, a 7-month high, up 0.5% on the day and 7.1% over 30 days. That is a short-run high, not an all-time one.
SPR crude is at 307.6M bbl, the lowest since Mar 1983, down 1.2% on the week and 7.1% over 30 days. That level sits at the 1st percentile of a 44-year record, a very thin national reserve.
COMEX registered gold, the metal actually pledged for delivery, is at 14.75M oz, a 7-month low, little changed on the day and down 0.5% over the month. That is near the bottom of its short run.
COMEX total gold stocks are at 27.04M oz, a 7-month low, flat on the day and down 1.9% over 30 days. The level is low for its short run while the daily move is quiet.
COMEX gold coverage, the share of open positions backed by warehouse metal, is at 38.3%, a 7-month low, down 8.9% over 30 days. Lower coverage means less physical sitting behind each paper claim.
LME aluminum stocks are at 266,300 mt, the lowest in the 19-year record, down 0.6% on the day and 12.3% over 30 days. That is the 0th percentile, the floor of its history.
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.