Aug 9, 2026
The board splits clean today: physical copper is piling up in warehouses at the same moment the paper crowd stacks its biggest net-long bet since 2021, while COMEX gold registered stocks keep draining.
LME lead stocks sit at the 100th percentile of a 19-year record, 424,575 mt, up 45.7% over 30 days even as the daily print eased 0.9%. That is the gap worth naming: the level is maxed out, but the speed has stalled, so the inflow that built this pile has quietly cooled.
Copper tells the same warehouse story from two angles. COMEX copper stocks hit a 7-month high at 722,839 short tons, up 7.2% on the month, while managed-money net longs ran to 75,758 contracts, the highest since Feb 2021 and up 16.5% on the week. Physical metal accumulating and paper positioning stretching to a 20-year-deep 95th percentile at the same time is the divergence the Desk is tracking.
Gold pulls the other way. COMEX total gold stocks slid to a 7-month low at 26.71M oz, down 1.5% on the month, while Tokyo retail gold holds at the 99th percentile of its 38-year record, ¥23,947/g. Vault stocks thin at one end; retail price sits near record at the other.
The energy cards round out a drain: SPR crude at 304.8M bbl is the lowest since Feb 1983, and gasoline stocks at 209.7M bbl mark their lowest since Nov 2025. The data shows a board where inventories are stretched to extremes on both the high and low side, and the daily moves are mostly calm underneath them.
Managed-money funds hold 75,758 net-long copper contracts as of Aug 4, the biggest bullish paper bet since Feb 2021. It is up 16.5% on the week and sits at the 95th percentile of a 20-year record.
US gasoline stocks fell to 209.7M bbl, the lowest since Nov 2025. The weekly drop was a modest 0.8%, down 2.0% over the month.
LME lead stocks stand at 424,575 mt, the top of a 19-year record, after a 45.7% climb over 30 days. The daily move slipped just 0.9%, so the pile is at its peak but the inflow has stalled.
COMEX total gold stocks dropped to 26.71M oz, a 7-month low, down 0.8% on the day and 1.5% on the month. Vault gold has been steadily draining out.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 304.8M bbl, the lowest level since Feb 1983. It is down 6.4% over 30 days.
COMEX copper stocks reached a 7-month high of 722,839 short tons, up 7.2% on the month. Physical copper is accumulating in the warehouses.
COMEX registered platinum sits at 193K oz, a 7-month low near the bottom of its short record. It was flat on the day, down 2.6% over 30 days.
Tokyo retail gold at Tanaka is priced at ¥23,947/g, near the top of a 38-year record at the 99th percentile. The daily move was a quiet 0.5% lower.
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.