Aug 10, 2026
The base-metals board split hard today: LME lead sits pinned at a 19-year high while LME aluminum prints the lowest in that same 19-year record.
LME lead stocks hit the 100th percentile of a 19-year record at 424,575 mt, up 45.7% over 30 days. The daily move was a quiet -0.9%, so the level is at the ceiling while the speed has gone flat; the position, not the day, is the story.
That extreme rhymes against LME aluminum, which sits at the 0th percentile, the lowest in the same 19-year record, down 11.8% over 30 days. Two warehouses under one exchange, one at the top of its range and one at the bottom.
Managed money agrees the direction of travel on copper: net long 75,758 contracts, the highest since Feb 2021 and up 26.9% over 30 days, sitting at the 95th percentile of a 20-year record. COMEX copper stocks are also at a 7-month high, so paper positioning and physical inventory are pulling the same way for once.
The energy line is the durable structural one: SPR crude at 304.8 MM bbl, the lowest since Feb 1983, with gasoline stocks at 209.7 MM bbl. The daily moves are small; the levels are decades deep, which is where a thin reserve matters most.
Managed-money funds are net long 75,758 copper contracts, the most bullish positioning since Feb 2021. That is up 16.5% on the week and up 26.9% over 30 days, ranking in the 95th percentile of a 20-year record.
US gasoline stocks stand at 209.7 MM bbl, the lowest since Nov 2025. The moves are modest: down 0.8% on the week and down 2.0% over 30 days, leaving the level mid-range at the 34th percentile.
LME lead stocks sit at 424,575 mt, the 100th percentile of a 19-year record. Up 45.7% over 30 days but down just 0.9% on the day, so the level is maxed out while the daily pace has cooled.
COMEX total gold stocks fell to 26.71M oz, a 7-month low. Down 0.8% on the day and 1.5% over 30 days, a slow bleed rather than a sharp drop.
SPR crude is at 304.8 MM bbl, the lowest reading since Feb 1983. Down 0.9% on the week and 6.4% over 30 days, this is a decades-deep low that keeps grinding lower.
COMEX copper stocks reached 722,839 short tons, a 7-month high. Up 0.3% on the day and 7.2% over 30 days, physical inventory is building alongside the bullish fund positioning.
COMEX registered platinum sits at 193K oz, a 7-month low near the bottom of its short history at the 2nd percentile. Flat on the day, down 2.6% over 30 days.
LME aluminum stocks fell to 256,400 mt, the lowest in the entire 19-year record. Down 0.6% on the day and 11.8% over 30 days, a steady 30-day drain has taken it to the floor of its range.
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.