Daily Vault Briefing ·Aug 26, 2026
LME aluminum stocks just printed the lowest level in the 19-year record while base-metal warehouses split hard, with lead sitting at the opposite extreme.
8 signals · 2 series crossed a threshold today
LME aluminum stocks sit at 246,825 mt, the lowest in the 19-year record, a 0th-percentile level bleeding 9.5% over 30 days. The daily move reads flat at 0.0%, so the level is at an extreme while the speed has gone quiet, the drain is deep but no longer accelerating.
Aluminum and lead usually rhyme as LME base metals, and here they diverge to the extremes of the same record. Lead sits at the 99th percentile of its 19-year record, yet it too is draining, down 8.2% over 30 days and 0.9% on the day, a full stockpile that is starting to move in the same direction as an empty one.
COMEX metals pull apart on their own board. Copper stocks hit a 7-mo high at 745,277 short tons, up 5.3% on the month, while total gold sits at a 7-mo low of 26.82M oz and registered gold rests at the 12th percentile of its short record, one warehouse filling as the other thins.
Tokyo retail gold at Tanaka sits at the 99th percentile of its 38-year record, up 10.3% over 30 days even as it eased 0.7% on the day. On the energy side, SPR crude at 289.7 MM bbl is the lowest since Nov 1982, a 1st-percentile reserve still draining 7.0% on the month. The board shows several series parked at record edges while their daily velocity runs mixed.
LME aluminum warehouses hold 246,825 mt, the lowest in the 19-year record. Stocks are down 9.5% over 30 days but flat on the day, so the level is extreme while the drain has paused.
US gasoline stocks stand at 206.8 MM bbl, the lowest since Nov 2025. Down 1.2% on the week and 2.1% over 30 days, still mid-range at the 26th percentile of a 37-year record.
COMEX total gold stocks sit at 26.82M oz, a 7-mo low, ticking up 0.4% on the day but off 0.8% over the month. It ranks at the 9th percentile of its short record.
Tokyo retail gold at Tanaka reads ¥26,339/g, the 99th percentile of a 38-year record. Up 10.3% over 30 days despite a 0.7% dip on the day.
LME lead stocks hold 412,200 mt, the 99th percentile of the 19-year record, an unusually full warehouse. It is drawing down, off 8.2% over 30 days and 0.9% on the day.
COMEX copper stocks reach 745,277 short tons, a 7-mo high and the top of that short record. Up 5.3% over 30 days and 0.1% on the day.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 289.7 MM bbl, the lowest since Nov 1982 and the 1st percentile of a 44-year record. It continues to drain, down 7.0% over 30 days and 1.3% on the week.
COMEX registered gold, the metal actually pledged to deliver, sits at 14.55M oz, the 12th percentile of its 7-mo record. Up 0.1% on the day but off 1.4% over the month.
Sources and method
Sources: CME Group COMEX warehouse reports, LME warehouse data, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, ETF issuer filings, and venue price quotes. Every figure is computed straight from the stored source data; percentiles rank today's level against the series' full record.